What AD762 Covers and What It Does Not

The product scope is exact, so read it literally. The case covers suspension PVC (S-PVC) and bulk/mass PVC (M-PVC) in pure form. That includes commodity, extender and specialty grades under CN code ex 3904 10 00.

Paste buyers get a pass this time. Emulsion-polymerised PVC (E-PVC, or paste resin) is explicitly excluded from the case.

The complaint came from the PVC Trade Committee (Inovyn, Kem One and Vynova), filed on 10 August 2026. Brussels found enough evidence of dumping and injury to open a full investigation.

Dumping and injury are assessed over 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, with injury trends traced back to January 2022.

Paste resin sits outside this case. Commodity suspension PVC from China, Korea, Mexico or Taiwan sits inside it.

Why Chinese PVC Faces the Harshest Scenario

All four origins face dumping allegations, but the legal attack differs by country. China draws the toughest treatment.

Much of China’s PVC runs on the calcium-carbide (acetylene) route instead of the ethylene route common in Europe. The complaint says carbide is more than 17% of acetylene-route production cost. It also says captive mining and licensing controls hold the carbide price below international levels.

If Brussels accepts that, the lesser-duty rule falls away for China. Duties would then track the full dumping margin instead of the lower injury margin.

For Chinese PVC, the complaint goes after the cheap carbide behind the resin as well as the resin price.

The Retroactivity Clock Is Already Running

This is the part buyers most often misunderstand. The duty clock does not start when provisional measures land in spring 2027. The Commission has stated its intent to register imports under Article 14(5). Registration adds no duty by itself. It creates the records that let definitive duties reach back to cargoes clearing customs right now.

Registration is the sharpest edge of the EU PVC anti-dumping probe for buyers. We have a live precedent from this month. On 9 October the Commission ordered nine-month customs registration of Sinopec polyvinyl alcohol imports, effective 10 October under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2245. That case is PVA, not PVC. It still shows Brussels is already using the registration tool in chemical cases this October.

As of 23 October, no equivalent registration regulation has appeared for AD762. The intent is on record, but the order has not appeared. If your purchase orders price PVC resin as if the duty clock starts in 2027, reprice them.

A purchase order signed this week can carry duty liability from a ruling made next year. Trade duties do sometimes come back. US importers are now recovering IEEPA tariffs through a formal refund process.

When Each Stage of the Case Lands

The statutory clock is defined, even if Brussels moves slowly. Provisional duties can come seven to eight months after initiation, so April or May 2027. Definitive measures follow at about thirteen to fourteen months, around November 2027. Provisional measures get flagged about four weeks before they bite.

INEOS calls this pace too slow for the damage underway. The company says PVC imports doubled in twelve months. It has filed or is preparing 20 trade defence cases, double the number since November 2025. Whether you side with Brussels or the importers changes nothing in your cost model. Use the dates above as working assumptions.

What the EU PVC Anti-Dumping Probe Means for Your 2027 Part Costs

Europe is closing one of the last open doors for low-cost PVC. South Korea opened its own investigation into Chinese suspension PVC in July. India has run a series of PVC actions of its own. Earlier in 2026, the UK opened a parallel S-PVC probe against China, Mexico and Korea.

Do not confuse a trade case with a price spike. European construction demand is genuinely soft. The case gives EU producers room to defend prices, but weak demand caps how far resin can run near term. For molded-part buyers the variable is not today’s resin price. Watch the origin printed on the certificate of analysis instead.

If your parts are PVC (window profiles, fittings, housings, electrical conduit), ask one question first. Which origin does the resin come from, and does the quote assume today’s duty-free landed cost?

Your 2027 part price is being set by a Brussels timetable, not just by the resin market. Resin markets move on their own too; here is what to do when resin prices spike.

What Molded-Part Buyers Should Do This Quarter

Waiting for the duty rate is the expensive option. The EU PVC anti-dumping probe rewards buyers who act early. The buyers who come out cheapest will be the ones who priced the risk in early.

1. Confirm your grade. Paste resin sits outside the case; commodity, extender and specialty S-PVC grades sit inside it.
2. Get the origin in writing. If a supplier will not name the resin origin, treat the quote as exposed.
3. Write the retroactivity clause now. State who pays if definitive duties reach back to shipments made during the case, and have counsel review the wording.
4. Qualify alternative origins early. EU domestic, Turkish, Egyptian or US-origin PVC sits outside AD762, but check lead times and MOQs before you need them.
5. Model the landed cost with a duty scenario. Plug a provisional-duty assumption into the estimator below and watch what 15% or 25% does to your part price.
6. Brief your customs broker on the exposure before the registration order drops, not after.

Run the same numbers through our molded-part cost sheet to see how resin and duty move together.

The Mirror Case: China Answers With Its Own Probe

While Brussels moves on PVC, Beijing has opened a case of its own. On 3 October, China’s MOFCOM opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU-origin p-nitrotoluene under Announcement No. 44. Two Chinese producers alleged EU import prices fell nearly 60% between 2022 and 2025 while volumes stayed high.

Interested parties must register and comment by today, 23 October. The deadline is The Edge’s calculation from the 20-day window in the announcement. A MOFCOM spokesperson notes the EU has opened 28 trade-remedy investigations against China since 2025, about half of them on chemicals. The Chinese case normally concludes by 3 October 2027.

If your supply chain runs both directions across the EU-China lane, you are exposed on both ends. Trade headlines will keep shifting the math. Our earlier note on the tariff relief lists shows how fast the picture can change.

Trade defence in chemicals is now a two-way tool, and buyers sit in the middle.